Discover How an Annual Cap on Temporary Residents Can Help.
Building a sustainable future for Canada, one policy change at a time.
Content:
A recent CIBC report, dated August 30, 2023, emphasizes the urgency of implementing policies to limit the influx of temporary residents, a matter more pressing than commonly perceived.
This fresh report reveals that Canada’s official count of non-permanent residents (NPRs) or temporary residents (TRs), used for planning purposes, falls short by one million compared to the actual number of individuals residing in the country.
The current heightened attention to a substantial rise in temporary residents, especially international students, and the necessity of placing an annual cap on their numbers must be acted upon promptly and without delay.
Statistics Canada’s undercount of temporary residents in Canada becomes evident due to the significant disparity between Census figures and the more dynamic quarterly and annual estimates of population growth.
The report conveys, “Even if, miraculously, we begin taking all the necessary steps to boost housing supply, it will still take several years for that supply to become available in the market. In the meantime, demand is rapidly increasing.”
The report examines the reasons behind the undercounting of non-permanent or temporary residents in Canada.
Firstly, the report notes that temporary residents’ participation in the census is restricted for various reasons. These include factors like arriving from countries where engaging with the government is ill-advised, or having uncertainties about whether they should participate in the census or not.
Secondly, the system at Statistics Canada operates under the assumption that temporary resident (TR) visa holders leave the country within 30 days after their visa expires.
However, in reality, the majority of these temporary residents do not depart once their visas have expired.
While the IRCC (Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada) introduced special measures for extending work permits for international students during the pandemic, Statistics Canada has not factored in these extensions in its calculations.
The CIBC report indicates that there is no official data available on this matter. Nevertheless, their cautious estimate suggests that over 750,000 temporary residents have exceeded their authorized stay between 2017 and 2022.
However, the actual figure is likely even greater because CIBC did not include temporary residents with expired status who have not yet applied for temporary or permanent residency status.
As a result, Statistics Canada’s practice of assuming a departure one month after a visa’s expiration has significantly underestimated projections for population, housing demand, and service requirements, particularly in cities with universities.
The CIBC report draws a conclusion that the count of non-permanent residents (NPRs) missing from the official statistics used by planners is nearing one million.
This discrepancy results from the clear undercounting of NPRs in the census and the omission of individuals who have overstayed their visas in quarterly demographic statistics.
The practical implication of this undercounting is that Canada’s housing affordability crisis is actually more severe than initially thought.
As a result, it necessitates even more urgent and assertive policy measures, including strategies to better align the increase in the number of non-permanent residents with their ability to secure housing.
Does this mean that Canada will stop accepting International Students in 2024?
Canada will not be closing its doors to international students in 2024. However, the IRCC (Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada) is presently in the process of developing a mechanism to establish an annual limit on the influx of foreign students coming to Canada.